Tuesday, May 13, 2008

DePo on Petco

Forgive me for what I guess is the third DePodesta link in as many days, but the guy I'm going to tout as the next Giants GM until someone gives me a reason to think otherwise has a breakdown of how bad -- or not -- Petco has been to the Padres over the past four years:
Given the difference in batting lines between the Padres and their opponents, one would expect the Padres to have had a winning record at home, which has been the case. The Padres worst home record in Petco came in the inaugural season when the 2004 team posted a 42-39 record at home (interestingly, that team had the best home batting stats of any Padres team in Petco). The total record at Petco for the Padres, including this season, is 186-156, which pro-rates to an annual record of 44-37 at home. Does anyone happen to know what the average record at home has been for all Major League teams since the beginning of 2004? Drum roll....

44 and 37.

That relatively superficial analysis tells me two things: one that is discouraging and one that is encouraging. The encouraging takeaway is that the Padres are solid at home, and the way Petco plays in terms of wins and losses is on par with other home ballparks. So our fans have plenty of reasons to come to Petco to enjoy the best atmosphere in all of Major League Baseball while also watching a winning team. The discouraging takeaway is that I'd rather be on the high end of the spectrum rather than the middle.
I get the sense from the post that DePodesta is doing that analysis in response to Padre fans who ask why they can't move the fences in or something. Here you see the limitation of his inherent conflict of interest. If he's being honest, he doesn't go through this exercise. Rather he says something like:

"Fences?! I have a third baseman who hits like a 1970s shortstop, a shortstop who hits like a pitcher, a left fielder who hits like a backup catcher, and a catcher who only looks good compared to our centerfielder. Oh, that centerfielder? He frickin' died three weeks ago, only nobody had the decency to tell me until the other frickin' day! Fences?! Jeez."

1 comment:

Osmodious said...

This is not a constructive statement in any way, shape or form, in that it won't add to the discussion at all...but I just wanted to let you know that your projected 'response' from DePodesta made me actually giggle. Out loud.