Baseball from the Shyster's point of view.
You might be the only one I've seen who hasn't loved this contract. Quite a steal for AZ for the most part... lock up one of the premier CF through 2014. I do agree that his OBP must come up and all the signs are there that this will happen in 2008. The strikeouts will always be there for a guy with his power. Did I mention he's fast and is one of the better CF defensively?
I don't think that's the point. It's that if a guy who hasn't even been league average, yet, can get a nice $28 million dollar contract, why shouldn't Hamels and Fielder--both who have easily been above average the past two seasons--expect contracts proportional to their, uh, status?
I don't hate it. I actually kinda like Young. My problem with this is more about timing, in that he does need to show that he can improve his plate discipline in order to be effective. You got this guy under control for several years. What harm would it be to wait until November and see how he does this season? It's not like he's at the point where NOT giving him $28M risks alienating him.
DBacks are in a pretty unique situation where they have a lot of players who are gonna need/want these type of deals over the next year or two.Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Owings, and Upton will also be looking to get their arby years bought out soon enough. Ryan Howard's arbitration win really toyed with the whole process. If a guy can get 10M that early in the process, why not lock guys up early and get some cost certainty. AZ's front office has preached cost certainty the last few years and this follows that plan.
I think the situation if you wait is that you are going to have to spend a lot more money. At worst, this deal won't sink the D'backs. Also, when have they ever been supportive of patient batters? Arizona is one of those hack teams.
I'd tend to be in the thumbs-up group as well. I think if the D'Backs waited until the end of the season — and if Young posts a .350 OBP somehow — they'd be looking at a higher per-annum cost to sign him through the arb/early FA years. Further, what Young already does well (HRs and stolen bases, not to mention his ownership of a good defensive rep) plays well in arbitration. It's also important to note that the once fecund D'Backs farm system is now completely stripped of ready-soon talent, so Byrnes clearly sees this particular dice roll as offering him no worse than even-money to show profit.Sorry if the explanation is lacking, but I'm high on cold drugs right now.
Pretty coherent to me Diesel... We have to remember that Young is a CF as well. I ran some #s over at my DBacks board and if Young can get his walk rate up, he can easily become an .850 OPS guy on the conservative end. Compare that to CFs and you come up with Granderson, Sizemore, Hunter, and Beltran as the comps. Pretty easy to see the savings this deal can bring the DBacks.Back to Young's walk rate for a second, he's alreasy walked more times this season than all of April 2007 (8 vs 5). His walk rates were also increasing last year as the season went on. I could easily project him out to .269/.352/.510 this year which would make him one of the top 3 CF in baseball.
I think this will prove to be a good deal for arizona. Young is still only 24. He put up .266/.353/.500 over 500 minor league games, including .276/.363/.532 with 52 BBs in 402 ABs in AAA at 22. I think last year was an adjustment year and he should project to a .260/.340/.500 type hitter, which would make him worth far more than that extension for the next 5 years.
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