"The thing about it, though, is you don't want to stunt their progress and growth," Baker said. "It's very tempting to think only of today vs. thinking what's right for them and us in the long run, for years to come. A month can be worth years in terms of experience and confidence."Mark Prior and Kerry Wood groan. What else, Dusty?
"Need is not the issue right now," Baker said. "The issue is we've got guys here that have done the job and are about to do the job. You're telling me Adam Dunn is not going to hit 40 home runs? You're telling me [Ken Griffey Jr.] isn't going to hit 30 home runs, no matter how they've started? Is three weeks enough to say that they're ready for here?No, but someone should be telling him that Corey Patterson, Josh Fogg, and Matt Belisle are also going to play to expectations, and that's not such a good thing either.
Not that it matters. In light of the Krivksy firing, it's pretty safe to say that Castellini and Jocketty have made the decision to punt this season and storm next year with all of the fully ripe talent Krivsky and his predecessor Dan O'Brien assembled.
My above-snark aside, that's not necessarily a bad plan, especially if Jocketty is allowed to use the money freed up from Griffey and Dunn's departures to sign some decent supporting talent to put around all the kids.
6 comments:
You'd like to think that Adam Dunn qualifies as "decent talent". Despite his defensive shortcomings, he's in the upper echelon of ball whackers in baseball.
No doubt about that, Mr. Thursday. But my guess is that he won't be there next year (he's a free agent after this season) because (1) I think he wants out of Cincy; and (2) I don't think Dusty appreciates his talents.
So you have to assume he and Griffey are gone, that Bruce is one of the outfielders (probably RF), leaving two holes unless you think that Ryan Freel is an everyday outfielder. A defensive specialist in center and a serviceable Reggie Sanders type (solid, but a lower money/shorter term solution) and you have the makings of a pretty decent team for way less money than they're paying now, with some of those savings to be used on the bullpen.
It stands to reason that the Reds could find some interest in the trade market for a fellow like Dunn. There are plenty of teams out there who'd be well served by the addition of a power-hitting, on base machine like Adam Dunn. If you're punting for the season and expecting him to leave, why not dangle him in the trade market, and see if you can get something better than the compensatory picks you'd get otherwise. (Does Dunn get valued as a Type A Free Agent?)
There's a problem with that, Drew. According to Cots, as a result of the Reds picking up his 2008 option, Dunn has a full no-trade clause until June 15th, and a limited no-trade clause for the remainder of 2008 which allows Dunn to specify 10 clubs to which he would accept a trade.
This may not be a killer -- it's always possible would waive the clause even before 6/15 if they had a deal set up to send him to a winner (a lot of water has gone under the bridge with him and the Cincy fans and broadcasters since he signed that deal) -- but it certainly does complicate things.
You guys think Jocketty's #1 priority isn't to sign Dunn to a long-term deal? I'd be willing to bet Dunn will be in a Reds uniform for many years to come. Krivsky might have been that stupid, but no way Jocketty is going to let Dunn walk. He's one of the ten best offensive players in the NL and the kinda guy you build a franchise around. Of course, if Baker was smart enough to bat Dunn second or third in the lineup, the evidence would be even more obvious than it already is.
I would love to see an Adam Dunn trade to Seattle for Jeff Clement.
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