I normally eschew predictions for a couple of reasons. The primary reason is because they're almost always wrong, so what -- aside from providing fodder for some post-facto snark -- is the point?Another reason is that making predictions works, however subtly, to affect one's analysis of events as they unfold. For example, though I don't ultimately care who wins the Red Sox-Angels series, if I pick one I will then have some level of rooting interest in the series that I wouldn't have otherwise had. That's fine to a point -- I often pick a favorite over the course of a series for silly reasons -- but I'd hate to do it simply so that my pre-series predictions were validated. I dunno, maybe that's silly.
With all of that said, all of the FanHouse bloggers made some predictions, so I joined in the party as well. The results can be seen here. Here's my more expanded version:
DIVISION SERIES
Rays over White Sox 3-1
Red Sox over Angels 3-2
Brewers over Phillies 3-2
Dodgers over Cubs 3-1, in what I'll call my upset special.
LCS
Rays over Red Sox 4-3
Brewers over Dodgers 4-2
WORLD SERIES
Brewers over Rays 4-3
WORLD SERIES MVP: CC Sabathia, after he pulls a Mickey Lolich and wins three games and hits a home run.
I'll admit that outcome was based largely on (a) a perverse desire to see a really low-rated World Series combined with (b) my intense man-crush on CC Sabathia. By the cold light of day, however, I'm having a hard time seeing the Brewers and Rays making it that far.
But let's be clear here: aesthetically speaking, I'm having trouble constructing a World Series matchup that I wouldn't want to see. Cubs-White Sox has its obvious appeal, as does Cubs-Red Sox and Dodgers-Red Sox. The Rays are going to be a good story no matter what. Maybe an Angels-Phillies pairing would have the least color, for lack of a better term, but even those teams have a lot of interesting aspects to them compared to the slate we get in most seasons.
So I guess what I'm saying here is that my confidence and interest in my own predictions is profoundly shallow, and I'll be pretty happy no matter what comes out of the playoff mix this year.
11 comments:
What about Dodgers and Angels? I'm calling it now and has the same appeal as Cubs-White Sox, excpet no one cares about the two LA teams.
The folks at Fox are salivating at the thought of a Milwaukee Tampa series.
Do you think Bud is torn? Root for the hometown team he once owned or the ratings bonanza that would be Cubs-Sox?
Et tu Craig?
Vlad? Teixeira? Lackey? Anyone? Guaranteed close games? Does no one think the Angels are exciting except people in SoCal?
Please don't make me bust out the "no one respects us" card. I'll do it! Don't think I won't!
I'm also pulling for a Milwaukee/Tampa WS. As long as the Cubs or Dodgers don't win it, I'll be happy.
I can't trust your picks unless you back them up by irrelevant stats that might or might not back up your prediction. Example:
Division Series
Rays over white sox, 3-1. The rays lead the AL with 10 extra innings wins this year.
Red sox over Angels, 3-2. Since Manny Ramirez was traded, the other manny (delcarmen) has an ERA of 1.84 in 29.3 innings
Brewers over Phillies, 3-2. Brewers have the younger (average age 28.6), hungrier team
Dodgers over cubs, 3-1. Manny Ramirez has been a force, and Joe torre has managed his share of playoff winners.
Championship Series
Rays over Red Sox, 4-3. Team speed should decide this series; look for the Rays, who only grounded into 111 double plays, to pull this one out.
Brewers over Dodgers, 4-2. The dodgers have struck out 1032 times as a team this year. CC knows something about striking people out.
World Series
Brewers over Rays, 4-3. Rays won two of three from the brewers back in 2005.
There. I fixed your picks.
Curse you Shyster! Phils/Dodgers in NLCS for historical purposes, Phils/(either) Sox for an Original 16 series that makes you hark back to the days of 1912. Go Phils!
Explain this to me, though, like I'm a 4 year old.
Yes, no Yankees, yes, a Brewers/Rays series means it does not have the Cubs and/or Red Sawx in it, but why would ratings have to go down. It loses the "casual" fan, b/c there is no interest? Wouldn't the WS have interest, even to the casual fan, no matter who is playing, precisely b/c it IS the World Series, and the casual fan wouldn't be watching baseball UNLESS it were the World Series? I know, I know, I'm slow, but I can't imagine why a World Series would hinge on the participants. Unless there is bad ball being played, akin to a Detroit-Spurs NBA finals. By this point, any of these teams has a story line to them, and I would think recognizable talent.
Again, maybe it's because I'm a big baseball fan, and I loathe non-baseball fans, but by the post-season, especially the WS, I don't see what it matters who the teams are.
Someone, please enlighten me . . .
Bigcat: I'm a fan of baseball too, but if it's the Rays and Brewers in the WS, I'll be interested, but maybe not interested enough to go to work 2 hours early so I can make it home for the game.
If the Angels are in the Series, I'm doing everything I possibly can to watch those games because they're my team. Seeing as how the Red Sox and Cubs have the largest fanbases while the Rays/Brewers have the smallest, it would make sense that ratings are higher for a series between the most popular teams.
I love baseball no matter who's playing, but unless it involves the Angels, I'm not going to alter my schedule for it.
My prediction is that Tim McGarver will say foolish and inane things that drives me batty and that I'll actually appreciate my daughter janking my arm hairs as that will distract me from cursing him out in front of her.
It doesn't matter as long as the Cubbies lose in the playoffs again and continue a century long reputation for being losers.
Is the Cardinal fan in me coming out?
APBA Guy-
I predict if the Rays make it to the series, Tropicana will NOT sell out for all games.
Postseason predictions in baseball are BS. The 5 game DS format is a joke. There are reasons that it takes 162 or 163 games to determine which teams are superior. 5 or 7 games proves nothing, it's a crapshoot. Sometimes a team that is only good enough to win 83 regular season games plays well, gets the breaks and wins the World Series. If there is one thing we've learned from the stat community it's that there is a lot of randomness to baseball.
Dodgers win WS. ( I love Manny ).
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