tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post8963178794010268194..comments2023-06-17T08:53:42.643-04:00Comments on ShysterBall: Joe MorganCraig Calcaterrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00190345915954808542noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-89360163729820754142007-08-09T23:35:00.000-04:002007-08-09T23:35:00.000-04:00Dude, dude, dude ...I think your heart is in the r...Dude, dude, dude ...<BR/><BR/>I think your heart is in the right place, 64, but you (like a lot of people who feel the same as you) completely misunderstand the "stat geeks." Let me clarify:<BR/><BR/>No one ever said that BA was unimportant or irrelevant. What people like me do say is that BA is a poor indicator of a batter's real value, since it only counts one thing (hits against at-bats), without really distinguishing the value of the hits themselves. If Luis Castillo gets 10 hits in 20 official ABs, he has a BA of .300, which is considered by many people to be "good." If Pat Burrell has 7 hits in 30 ABs, he has a BA of .233, which is considered by many to be "mediocre."<BR/><BR/>But what if all of Castillo's hits are singles, and all of Pat Burrell's hits are HR? I can't imagine anyone preferring 10 singles to seven home runs, because home runs are the single best thing a batter can do anytime he comes to the plate. So, if we know what the hits are, as opposed to simply counting the hits, we have a much better idea of an individual batter's value.<BR/><BR/>That's why statistics like OBP and SLG are more telling of a player's value than BA. <BR/><BR/>However, I don't know one real "stat geek" who still believes OPS is the best stat available to judge a hitter's value. More advanced stats like VORP, WARP, Run Shares and EqA do the job much better, by adjusting for park effects, strength of opposition, era, baserunning and position played. <BR/><BR/>Sure, lots of people just laugh off funny-sounding things like VORP, but the bottom line is that those things are extremely useful and reliable tools. Just ask the front offices of the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Devil Rays and Indians, all of whom have hired former writers from "stat geek" mecca baseballprospectus.com.<BR/><BR/>It's only the most strident of "stat geeks" who claim that statistics are superior to baseball scouting. You're correct in saying that scouting is still the backbone of prospect evaluation, and I don't know of a single reputable sabermatrician who says otherwise. However, scouting is costly and imprecise, and is dependent much more on intuition than it is anything concrete. Our eyes can lie to us; numbers, when put into proper context, are much more reliable. So, the fusion of traditional scouting with statistical analysis is by far the best approach. Just make sure that your scouts can see instead of simply imagine, and your stats are the right ones. <BR/><BR/>And, I promise you, runs, RBI and BA are among the least useful stats you can find, unless you're playing fantasy baseball.<BR/><BR/>Take care,<BR/><BR/>DieselDieselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02736353413710315191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-62898641696211183042007-08-09T12:17:00.000-04:002007-08-09T12:17:00.000-04:00OBP = (H + W + HBP) / (AB + H + W + HBP)OBP = (H + W + HBP) / (AB + H + W + HBP)64cardinalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10548756484514323751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-4901868942664295482007-08-09T12:14:00.000-04:002007-08-09T12:14:00.000-04:00See, now I'm conflicted. I agree that OPS is an i...See, now I'm conflicted. I agree that OPS is an important number. But I still have to agree with Joe Morgan. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<BR/><BR/>At the end of the day, the only stat that truly counts is Runs. And, to me, the 2 most important statitistics are who scored them and who knocked them in. Yes, RBI's might be more of a team issue. BUt it is the individual batter who does something to get that runner across the plate, albeit with help (sac, sb, go, etc.) <BR/><BR/>I also agree that OPS is a very important number, as the players with a high OPS are the players most likely to score the runs and drive them in. Again, who scored and who knocked them in. <BR/><BR/>I have a problem with OPS, however, in that many of the stat geeks continually claim that it is the most important statistic, but then claim batting average doesn't matter at all. Not to insult anyone's intelligence, but this is how I see it.<BR/><BR/>OPS = OBP *(or +) SLG<BR/><BR/>OBP = (H + W + HBP) / (AB + W + HBP)<BR/><BR/>SLG = TB / AB<BR/><BR/>TB = ((1*S)+(2*D)+(3*T)+(4*HR))/AB<BR/><BR/>In all of this statistics, AB and H play an important part. In fact, without AB and H, you can't have a sluggin pct. With out AB and H, all you have for OBS is walks. By this rationale, Put Burrell is better than Albert Pujols because he has more walks.<BR/><BR/>So what it comes down to with OPS is that the guy who walks the most is the best. <BR/><BR/>I can't take a statistic seriously if all the major advocates of it discount some of the stats that make up the stat they are trying to trupmet. <BR/><BR/>If batting average (H/AB) isn't important, then by defintiton, OPS can't be either. Its just not allowed. <BR/><BR/>Of course, this is just my opinion. I'm probably wrong.64cardinalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10548756484514323751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-31893436001613255022007-08-09T11:56:00.000-04:002007-08-09T11:56:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.64cardinalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10548756484514323751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-61831702278651253662007-08-09T11:48:00.000-04:002007-08-09T11:48:00.000-04:00I actually agree 100% with that, 64. I think that ...I actually agree 100% with that, 64. I think that intangibles and makeup and a scout's gut feeling (as well as what he simply observes with his own two eyes) are very important. To the extent that it Morgan's position -- or anyone else's -- I wholeheartedly agree.<BR/><BR/>My problem (and FJM's among others) with Morgan is that when he does wade into stats, he values the stats that don't necessarily tell you the most about a player's individial value and is openly dismissive of those that do.<BR/><BR/>I'm fine with Joe Morgan saying "you can't just look at the stats; you have to look at the whole player." I'm not fine with Joe Morgan saying "OPS tells you nothing; RBIs tell you everything," because I simply think that's wrong.Craig Calcaterrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00190345915954808542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-84335012526724909392007-08-09T11:27:00.000-04:002007-08-09T11:27:00.000-04:00Should have said "some go with the numbers and it ...Should have said "some go with the numbers and it works, and some go against the numbers and it works".64cardinalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10548756484514323751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9131289420618991795.post-32434374111053431202007-08-09T11:25:00.000-04:002007-08-09T11:25:00.000-04:00Hey, I'm a stat geek myself. Love 'em, love discus...Hey, I'm a stat geek myself. Love 'em, love discussing 'em, love writing them down for just the hell of it. I problably couldn't live without them. <BR/><BR/>Now for the hard part. I have to do something I didn't think I would ever do.<BR/><BR/>I kind of agree with Joe Morgan. The stat craze has gotten so out of hand that people forget about the other aspects of playing ball. <BR/><BR/>Scouts routinely sign guys on potenital, not on any specific numbers they put up. Players are routinely called up to the majors without having gaudy statistics in the minors. Or left down when they do.<BR/><BR/>There are other intangibles that make ballplayers great. The will to win, the ability to play hurt, field smarts, etc. Not all of this can be attributed to numbers on a scoreboard.<BR/><BR/>Some managers routinely go with the numbers and it works. Some routinely go with the numbers and it works. But stats can't look into a players eyes and see what a manager sees. <BR/><BR/>The stats are good tools. But they are not the end all, be all of a player's ability. It has gotten out of hand to where the stat geeks have taken on more importance than the accumulated knowledge of 136 years of professional baseball. Stats are important, but they are a tool. They shoudn't be the decieding factor.<BR/><BR/>Please don't make me ever agree with Joe Morgan again.64cardinalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10548756484514323751noreply@blogger.com